Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.590900 3.548272 4.913546 7.074430 1.055177e+01 16.206587 2.675326e+01
2025-03-09 1.711673 2.700941 4.408805 7.826924 1.524720e+01 32.936219 8.903243e+01
2025-03-16 1.195097 2.106200 3.943632 8.468219 2.164642e+01 70.135186 3.993657e+02
2025-03-23 0.893513 1.734080 3.685502 9.569375 3.316949e+01 185.649423 4.591230e+03
2025-03-30 0.681540 1.434607 3.411279 10.616827 5.108760e+01 600.908042 1.615520e+06
2025-04-06 0.499485 1.112304 2.868131 10.259323 6.545173e+01 1768.107725 NaN
2025-04-13 0.368756 0.856541 2.350975 9.411059 7.715163e+01 5561.064028 NaN
2025-04-20 0.300008 0.733761 2.178800 10.121238 1.199883e+02 85284.341371 NaN
2025-04-27 0.257395 0.665182 2.154184 11.910147 2.324192e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.225127 0.613077 2.162353 14.350699 5.232698e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.192706 0.545797 2.056150 15.845643 1.073204e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.159473 0.461867 1.807739 15.248975 1.600924e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.129495 0.380965 1.532151 13.806015 2.076105e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.113381 0.344611 1.467872 15.284675 5.907570e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.099319 0.310417 1.390288 16.526433 2.018772e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.088961 0.286674 1.357980 18.850622 1.770129e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.079734 0.263882 1.313956 21.085108 1.066133e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.069039 0.231024 1.174673 20.073986 2.046401e+09 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.059382 0.199673 1.024698 18.011926 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.053889 0.184818 0.985188 19.498780 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.050355 0.177456 0.997559 23.491108 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.047450 0.171934 1.021667 29.159042 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.043860 0.161894 0.998773 32.683146 NaN NaN NaN